Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Probability

Probability
Dependent & independent events
e.g.1 (a) : The bag below contains five interchangeable tantalises with the garners A , A , B , B , B marked on them.
A card is move at random from the bag and then another card is drawn at random.
The earns on the two tease are noted.
The tree plat at the left shows the possible outcomes in the case where the maiden ball
is replaced before the second iodin is drawn. Note that the chance of obtaining a particular
letter given that a letter was already drawn is independent of the first letter drawn.
That is the probability of B given A { B / A } is the same as the probability of .
3
P  B / A = P  B =
Thus for independent events . . . (1) .
5
The tree diagram at the right shows the possible outcomes in the case where the first ball is not
replaced before the second one is drawn. Note that the probability of obtaining a particular
letter given that a letter was already drawn is now dependent on the first letter drawn.

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That is the probability of A given B ( A / B ) is not the same as the probability of A.
3 3
P  B/ A  = P  B =
[ whilst
4 5
P  B / A ≠ P  B .
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